...emographic Division, hich issues biennial assessments and projections of orld population and by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.Measures of Population The numbers of births, deaths, immigrants, and emigrants over a specified time interval determine the change in population size. For comparative purposes, these components of change are expressed as proportions of the total population, to yield the birth rate, death rate, migration rates, and the population groth rate. Birth and death rates typically are stated as numbers per 1000 population per year. These rates are affected by the age-composition of the population for example, a very healthy population, hich, as a result, has a relatively large proportion of old people, might have a death rate similar to that of a poor population made up of predominantly younger members. Demographers, therefore, often use measures that are free of this age-distribution influence. To such idely used measures are the total fertility rate TFR and the life expectancy at birth.The total fertility rate is the number of children a oman ould have during her reproductive life if she experienced the prevailing rates of fertility at each age. High-fertility countries may have birth rates of 40 or even 50 per 1000 population per year corresponding levels of the TFR ould be 5 to 7 children per oman. Lo-fertility countries have birth rates of 15 to 20 per 1000 and TFRs of about 2. Replacement level fertility the level at hich each person on average has a single successor in the next generation corresponds to a TFR of about 2.1 under lo-mortality conditions.The life expectancy at birth is the average length of life that ould be observed in a population in hich the currently prevailing mortality risks at each age continued indefinitely. Preindustrial populations ere characterized by large fluctuations in mortality long-run averages, hoever, ould probably have shon death rates of 30 to 40 per 1000 and life expectancies of 25 to 35 years. Under modern health conditions, death rates belo 10 per 1000 and life expectancies above 70 years are common.Another important mortality measure is the infant mortality rate. This is the probability of death in the first year of life, usually stated as a number per 1000 births. Many less-developed countries have infant mortality rates above 100 per 1000that is, more than 10 percent of the children die in their first year. In countries ith effective health and educational systems, infant mortality rates are about 15 per 1000, or even loer.9VXqà56-. ajOJaQJaUJaajOJaQJaUJa6BOJaQJaJaph5
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